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Shifts in care delivery, patient complexity and site-of-care access challenges are reshaping health care utilization and will change the structure of the health care continuum, according to the 2026 healthcare utilization forecast from Vizient, known as the Impact of Change report.
What’s Driving This Healthcare Utilization Forecast
An aging population, rising chronic disease prevalence and continued migration of care to ambulatory settings are increasingly shaping demand. Home health volumes are expected to increase 13% over the next five years as services shift beyond traditional hospital settings. At the same time, as insurance coverage contracts, more patients are expected to delay preventive care and rely on emergency departments, helping drive a projected 6% increase in adult visits over the next decade.
A Fragmented System Adapting to New Demand
“These forecasts reflect a fragmented health care system adapting to a new normal,” said Brianna Motley, the company’s vice president for strategy intelligence. “As care moves beyond the traditional hospital settings, utilization is shaped by demographic, technological and clinical factors. Health systems need data-driven planning and advanced analytics to anticipate change and meet future demand.”
Ambulatory Growth Anchors the Healthcare Utilization Forecast
The 10-year forecast projects continued growth in outpatient services as more care shifts to ambulatory sites, creating new challenges for capacity planning, workforce strategy and care coordination. Additionally, artificial intelligence, virtual health and emerging technologies are reshaping how organizations plan for and deliver care across this evolving healthcare utilization forecast.
Post-Acute and Cancer Care Lead Volume Growth
Post-acute care volumes are expected to increase by 31% as the population ages, acuity rises, and more recovery, rehabilitation and chronic care shifts beyond traditional hospital settings. Cancer care outpatient volumes will grow by 20%, while inpatient demand remains flat as diagnostics, treatment and follow-up care shift to ambulatory settings.
Pediatric and Virtual Care Trends in the Healthcare Utilization Forecast
Continued declines in birthrates are reshaping pediatric care demand, with outpatient volumes growing 6% while inpatient utilization remains constrained. Meanwhile, one in five evaluation and management visits will occur remotely by 2036, reflecting the continuation of digital care models across the health care system as part of this broader healthcare utilization forecast.
Behavioral Health and Orthopedics Face Distinct Pressures
Rising prevalence and acuity continue to drive behavioral health demand, while care increasingly expands into community-based and virtual settings. In orthopedics, workforce and policy pressures are accelerating the shift to ambulatory, rehabilitation and lower-resource care settings.
Women’s Health Emerges as a Growth Area in the Healthcare Utilization Forecast
Strong growth in the age 65-plus population supports a growing need for pelvic health and menopause services, an area of the healthcare utilization forecast that reflects shifting demographic priorities as the population ages.
A Slimmer Margin for Error
“Health care organizations are facing an unprecedented rate of change, and the margin of error is slimmer than ever,” said Arun Ramasubramanian, president of Vizient Data and Digital, underscoring the stakes tied to how health systems respond to this forecast’s projections.
What This Healthcare Utilization Forecast Means for Health Systems
With post-acute care, cancer care, and virtual visits all projected to grow substantially over the next decade, health systems will need to rethink capacity planning, workforce allocation, and care coordination strategies well ahead of these shifts materializing. The healthcare utilization forecast suggests that organizations slow to adapt their site-of-care strategy risk falling behind as demand continues migrating toward ambulatory, virtual, and community-based settings.
What to Watch Going Forward
As AI, virtual health, and emerging technologies continue reshaping how organizations plan for and deliver care, health system leaders will likely use this healthcare utilization forecast as a planning benchmark for long-term investment decisions, particularly in post-acute infrastructure, virtual care platforms, and specialty service lines like women’s health and behavioral health that show significant projected growth.
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