Plans are expecting Medicare Advantage enrollment of 34 million beneficiaries in 2027, or about 47.4% of all Medicare enrollees, according to a Sept. 28 CMS news release outlining its CMS Medicare Advantage premiums 2027 projections ahead of the coming open enrollment period.
Why the CMS Medicare Advantage Premiums 2027 Enrollment Projection May Undercount Reality
This would be flat compared with the 2026 projection, but actual MA enrollment was 36.1 million as of June. CMS said plan enrollment projections have historically underestimated actual enrollment, and the agency expects “more robust” 2027 MA enrollment than plan projections currently suggest.
Why This Gap Matters for Reading the Numbers
Because insurers’ own projections have consistently landed below actual enrollment in recent years, the flat 34 million figure likely understates how many beneficiaries will actually choose Medicare Advantage next year, a pattern worth keeping in mind when comparing this forecast to final 2027 enrollment data once it becomes available.
The Premium Drops Within This CMS Medicare Advantage Premiums 2027 Forecast
Projections show weighted average monthly MA premiums will drop from $14.37 in 2026 to $12 in 2027, a 16.5% decrease. After rebates, the average monthly Part D total premium for MA plans with prescription drug coverage is projected to decrease from $11.32 to $7, a 38% decline. Supplemental benefits such as hearing, dental and vision are anticipated to hold steady.
Why the Part D Decline Is So Much Steeper
The average premium for standalone Part D prescription drug plans is slated to rise by less than $1 per month, from $35.09 to $36, even as CMS said there is broad pricing stability across the Part D market despite the Part D Stabilization Demonstration Project winding down. This divergence, MA-bundled Part D premiums falling sharply while standalone Part D premiums rise slightly, suggests insurers are pricing bundled MA-PD products more aggressively to attract or retain enrollees compared to standalone drug plans.
Access and Plan Choice Within This CMS Medicare Advantage Premiums 2027 Forecast
More than 99% of Medicare beneficiaries will be able to access at least one MA offering, and 97% will have at least 10 options. Nationally, the count of MA plans is expected to be mostly steady, with 5,553 in 2026 compared to roughly 5,532 in 2027. About eight in 10 MA beneficiaries should be able to stay with their current plan and have the same or a lower premium in 2027.
How This Fits Alongside State-Level Plan Losses
This broadly stable national plan count sits alongside more uneven state-level shifts reported separately, with Medicare Advantage plan choice falling in 29 of 51 jurisdictions even as premiums decline nationally, meaning the headline figures can mask meaningful variation for beneficiaries depending on where they live.
Part D Affordability Figures Within This CMS Medicare Advantage Premiums 2027 Forecast
Ninety-three percent of non-low-income beneficiaries will be able to get an enhanced Part D plan for less than $6 per month, while 88% will have access to a basic Part D plan for $10.30 or less. These figures suggest CMS is emphasizing continued low-cost drug plan access even as it highlights broader premium declines across the MA market.
The Sharpest State-Level Premium Swings
Wyoming will see the steepest average MA premium increase in dollars, rising from $45.91 to $69.23 per month, followed by Idaho ($27.81 to $37.93) and Connecticut ($16.89 to $25.31). The largest dollar decreases are expected in Minnesota ($69.11 to $59.40), Washington, D.C. ($26.28 to $16.91) and Mississippi ($11.18 to $4.08).
What This CMS Medicare Advantage Premiums 2027 Forecast Means Going Forward
With open enrollment running Oct. 15 through Dec. 7, beneficiaries will soon be able to see how these national projections translate into their own specific plan options and premiums, particularly given the wide state-level variation between places like Wyoming, facing a steep increase, and Mississippi, seeing one of the largest decreases. Given CMS’s own acknowledgment that plan projections have historically undercounted actual enrollment, insurers and policymakers should treat the flat 34 million figure as a conservative floor rather than a firm ceiling for 2027 MA participation.
What to Watch Going Forward
As open enrollment unfolds, industry observers will likely watch whether actual 2027 enrollment again exceeds the 34 million projection as CMS anticipates, and whether the roughly 8-in-10 beneficiaries expected to keep the same or lower premium materializes as broadly as projected. Given the sharp contrast between falling national average premiums and steep increases in select states like Wyoming, this CMS Medicare Advantage premiums 2027 forecast underscores how much beneficiary experience will continue to depend on local market conditions even as national headline figures point toward broader affordability gains.
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