Medicare Advantage plan choice will fall in more than half of states in 2027, even as CMS projects lower average premiums and a nearly unchanged number of available plans nationwide, defining which states losing Medicare Advantage plans 2027 face the sharpest cuts to consumer options.
The National Backdrop Behind States Losing Medicare Advantage Plans in 2027
The decline follows widespread disruption in 2026, when as many as 2.9 million MA enrollees had to find new coverage after their plans were discontinued or the insurer exited the market. Individual insurers have signaled a similar pullback for next year, with Humana saying in July that its 2027 plan exits are expected to affect about 600,000 members.
Falling Premiums Amid Fewer Choices
The weighted average monthly MA premium is projected to fall 16.5%, from $14.37 in 2026 to $12 in 2027. The number of MA plans nationwide will dip slightly from 5,553 to about 5,532, and more than 99% of beneficiaries will have access to at least one plan, with 97% having 10 or more options. This means falling premiums and broad access can coexist with meaningfully fewer choices in specific states, since a national average can mask sharp regional swings.
Which States Are Losing the Most Medicare Advantage Plans in 2027
Plan options are decreasing in 29 of the 51 jurisdictions where individual MA is available, which includes 49 states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico. Alaska will remain the only state with no individual MA plans for sale. Plan counts are rising in 21 states and are unchanged in Puerto Rico.
The Largest Declines by Raw Numbers and Percentage
Florida is losing the most plans overall, falling from 611 in 2026 to 560 in 2027. Ohio is dropping from 212 to 180, and Illinois is falling from 157 to 136. Wyoming will see the steepest percentage decline, with plans falling from 14 to 8, or about 43%. Montana is dropping 28% (32 to 23), D.C. and Maryland are each declining about 25% (20 to 15 and 63 to 47), and Minnesota is falling 22% (68 to 53).
Premium Shifts Within States Losing Medicare Advantage Plans in 2027
Wyoming is also projected to have the largest average premium increase, rising from $45.91 to $69.23 a month. Idaho’s average is projected to climb from $27.81 to $37.93 and Connecticut’s from $16.89 to $25.31.
Why Fewer Plans and Higher Premiums Often Move Together
Wyoming’s position as both the state with the steepest plan-count decline and the largest premium increase illustrates how reduced competition in a market can coincide with rising costs for the plans that remain, even as the national average premium falls. The largest decreases are expected to be in Minnesota ($69.11 to $59.40), D.C. ($26.28 to $16.91) and Mississippi ($11.18 to $4.08).
The States Bucking the Trend of Losing Medicare Advantage Plans in 2027
Tennessee will see the most plans added, rising from 132 to 155, followed by Missouri (157 to 174), Arizona (133 to 148) and Alabama (98 to 113). Plans are projecting 34 million MA enrollees in 2027, or about 47.4% of all Medicare enrollees.
Why Insurer Projections May Undercount Actual Enrollment
That 34 million figure matches plans’ projection for 2026, though actual 2026 enrollment came in higher, at 35.2 million as of March. CMS said it expects 2027 enrollment to again exceed plan projections, suggesting insurers may be pricing and staffing conservatively relative to how many beneficiaries actually choose Medicare Advantage.
What These States Losing Medicare Advantage Plans in 2027 Mean Going Forward
Beneficiaries in Florida, Ohio, and Illinois will see fewer plan options even as they retain access to multiple choices given the sheer size of those markets, while beneficiaries in smaller markets like Wyoming, Montana, and D.C. face both steep percentage declines and, in Wyoming’s case, a significant premium increase. Given that more than 99% of beneficiaries will still have access to at least one plan, the practical effect for most enrollees may be narrower choice among fewer competing insurers rather than a loss of coverage access itself.
What to Watch Going Forward
As open enrollment approaches, industry observers will likely watch whether actual 2027 MA enrollment again exceeds insurer projections as CMS expects, and whether states like Tennessee, Missouri, and Arizona that are gaining plans see meaningfully different premium and benefit trends than states losing options. Given the continued volatility already evident from 2026’s disruption affecting millions of enrollees, this pattern of states losing Medicare Advantage plans 2027 may signal further consolidation pressure on the program heading into subsequent enrollment cycles.
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