The Gap in Aging Health Measurement
As people age, their physical and mental abilities gradually decline. Experts call this combined capacity intrinsic capacity (IC). The World Health Organization recognizes IC as a key indicator of resilience in aging. Yet, no affordable, validated tool currently exists to measure it reliably.
Today’s healthcare systems focus largely on treating individual diseases. Costly private programs serve only a limited population. Moreover, clinical trials move slowly because researchers lack a reliable proxy for age-related functional decline. Consequently, a critical gap persists between what science knows about aging and what tools are available to act on that knowledge.
Introducing the THRIVE Initiative
To close this gap, the THRIVE team has emerged as a groundbreaking coalition. Dr. Michael Snyder, Director of the Center for Genomics and Personalized Medicine at Stanford University, leads the initiative. His team works in collaboration with the Buck Institute for Research on Aging and the Methuselah Foundation. Study partners include Whoop, YMCA, and OpenCures.
Together, these organizations bring together leading experts in longevity science. Their work receives backing through an award of up to $34.5 million from the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H).
What Is the PROSPR Intrinsic Capacity Score?
Predicting 20-Year Health Outcomes
The coalition aims to develop the PROSPR Intrinsic Capacity (IC) score, a robust predictor of long-term health outcomes. Specifically, the score targets predictions over a 20-year window, covering mortality, multimorbidity, hospitalization, and loss of functional ability.
How the Score Combines Data
The PROSPR score integrates multiple data streams to generate reliable predictions. These include health surveys, functional assessments, continuous wearable data powered by Whoop, and blood-based biomarkers. Researchers analyze these across large longitudinal datasets spanning millions of data points. This multi-source approach ensures both depth and accuracy in forecasting future health trajectory.
How the At-Home Assessment Kit Works
Accessible and Scalable by Design
Researchers will translate the PROSPR score into a streamlined at-home assessment kit. The kit enables accessible, scalable, population-level health monitoring. Furthermore, it targets a price point under $100, making it viable for widespread public use.
Accelerating Clinical Trials
Andrew Brack, ARPA-H Program Manager and creator of the PROSPR program, highlights the urgency. “With PROSPR, we’re enabling the first-ever clinical trials that truly target aging,” he states. “To avoid decade-long studies, we must identify a short-term, reliable surrogate that predicts longer-term health changes.”
Currently, the longevity sector lacks FDA-grade endpoints. PROSPR addresses this directly. Dane Gobel, Co-Founder of the Methuselah Foundation, describes it as “the operating system for the future of human health.” He adds that PROSPR builds the diagnostic infrastructure to prove aging is quantifiable and treatable.
Clinical Trials Through YMCA Partnerships
Massive Decentralized Observational Studies
To validate the PROSPR IC score, the THRIVE team will conduct a series of 1,000+ person decentralized trials. These observational and lifestyle intervention studies run in partnership with the YMCA, using OpenCures as the clinical trial platform.
Diverse Population, Real-World Interventions
Trials will involve a diverse U.S. population. Participants will test whether improvements in diet, exercise, sleep, stress management, and social engagement measurably improve intrinsic capacity. This community-based design moves aging science out of academic settings and into everyday life.
Why This Shifts the Future of Healthcare
From Disease Treatment to Function Preservation
This approach could fundamentally shift healthcare priorities. Rather than reacting to disease after it occurs, clinicians could focus on preserving function and resilience before decline begins. That shift carries enormous implications for both individual wellbeing and public health systems.
Faster, FDA-Approved Therapy Evaluation
Beyond individual health, the PROSPR IC score could accelerate clinical trials significantly. It provides a responsive, FDA-approved measure of age-related decline. As a result, the time needed to evaluate new therapies could shrink from decades to years.
Expert Voices on PROSPR’s Impact
Dr. David Furman, Professor and Bioinformatics Director at the Buck Institute for Research on Aging, calls PROSPR a “moonshot program.” He explains that it integrates molecular biomarkers with functional features of aging at scale — for the first time — to predict long-term health outcomes. “By converging gerontology and geroscience, we’re generating next-generation predictors and therapeutics for functional aging decline,” he says.
Dr. Brianna Stubbs, Clinical Lead at the Buck Institute, emphasizes accessibility. “We’re building the scientific foundation to measure intrinsic capacity with the same rigor we measure blood pressure or cholesterol — because what we can measure, we can improve.” Through decentralized trials and YMCA-based interventions, the team is creating scalable strategies to extend healthspan across communities.
